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January/February 2008


Borrowing troubleBorrowing Trouble -
Are Those Who Don't Study the Future Condemned to Falter in It?

Actuaries are among the few people in this confusing world who actually relish confusion. They want to make sense of trends, reversals, discontinuities, and the like. But will the mother of all discontinuities, looming in a recess just over the horizon, cause past trends to be irrelevant, the reversals to be minor blips, and the discontinuities to become the new norm?
by Jeffrey C. Harper
Dennis C. Martin
Ben H. Wolzenski



CastawayThe Castaway Actuary:
Financial Projects of Daniel Defoe

The author of Robinson Crusoe was neither a mathematician nor a scholar, but his own firsthand experience with risk and loss encouraged him to venture an opinion on the brave new world of insurance and pensions.
by Daniel D. Skwire




Cost of GovernmentThe Cost of Government Revisited

The original prediction in 2000 was that the soaring government costs that characterized much of the 20th century would continue increasing but at a much slower rate. Itís been eight years. How do the numbers hold up?
by Fred Kilbourne





PrescriptinA Prescription for the Future of Health Care in the United States

Health care reform is shaping up to be a major issue in the presidential election. The Canadians have had some time to work out the bugs in their system. Could it, or something like it, work south of the 49th parallel?
by Donald M. Armstrong




Friday Afternoon Quarterback
Linda Mallon


Is There Life in Longeveity Insurances
Mark Shemtob

The Rules Are Your Friend
Linda Bell

The Rev. Thomas Bayes and Credibility Theory
Thomas Herzog

The Case for Stock in Pension Funds
David T. Kausch

After Hours
Can I Count on Your Vote?
Mark Meyer

Numbers Can Be Fun
Reviews by Paul M. Conlin and Bruce D. Schobel

State of Confusion
Mark Danburg-Wyld

Vote for Me
Richard T. Zatorski

A treasury of Vanderhoof
Irwin Vanderhoof's columns for Contingencies have been collected in one volume. Order "Through an Actuarial Looking Glass" for just $16.