American Academy of Actuaries: Contingencies Magazine January/February 2004

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Now you can search for articles in back issues of Contingencies from July/August 2000 to the present. Simply type in subject words, author's name, or article title in the box at right and click Search.

Baby Boom and Baby Bust—
Fertility Rates and Why They Vary

Fertility rates vary not only from country to country and from time to time; they can be affected by economic and social factors as well.
by Robert L. Brown

Also online

More on population trends. The 2003 World Population Data Sheet has demographic data and projections for 200 countries.
The fertility gap. While the fertility rate has been rising in the United States, it's been falling north of the border, reports Statistics Canada.
From want to want. The creator of the relative income theory looks at the relationship between income and happiness.

The Challenge of Lower Interest Rates on Universal Life Insurance

Recent interest rates have declined to levels not seen in many years. Although the downward trend has reversed, low interest rates have already had a major impact on the life insurance industry.
by Allen M. Klein and Vanessa Butala

Gerbils on Espresso—A Better Way to Calculate IBNR Reserves With Low Variance

Cookbook methods for calculating IBNR reserves may have worked in the age of slide rules and adding machines, but lack of mathematical soundness condemns them in the age of computers.
by Robert G. Lynch