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Contingencies online exclusive

Major-league stats from the actuarial bullpen

Actuaries have been reading sabermetrics wizard Bill James for years, and many have come up with their own statistical formulas for baseball. So, when "Stat of the Art: The Actuarial Game of Baseball" was being written, we asked members of the American Academy of Actuaries to pitch us their own particular takes on baseball stats.

We got eight right in the groove. Our thanks to Damien Birnstihl, Aryeh Bak, Rod Keefer, Paul Conlin, Mark Seliber, Myron Kraynyk, Richard Newell, and Spencer Gluck.

Read their ideas — and James' responses to them — in this special feature, a Contingencies online exclusive.

The Reliever Effectiveness Ratio
by Damian Birnstihl

Rearranging the Starters
by Aryeh Bak

A New Wrinkle
Rod Keefer

The Three-Year-Ago Correlation
by Paul Conlin

Starting Pitchers and Relief Pitchers
by Mark Seliber

The Efficiency Rating
by Myron Kraynyk

The Base Advancement Percentage
by Richard T. Newell Jr.

The Ultimate Baseball Statistic
by Spencer M. Gluck


American Academy of Actuaries